投资中国你必须了解中国经济运行的逻辑和方向。
“高质量发展”简单五个字，描绘中国的未来。国家命运与市场投资休戚相关。哪些行业的资产具有较强的内需诱发作用、进出口拉动作用、较高的投资乘数、较大的劳动力就业带动作用、较低的能源消耗系数、环境排放系数以及更广泛的技术溢出效应？从哪些维度解剖高质量发展，是资产配置和投资过程中的重要考量。
市场研判和学术研究是行万里路和读万卷书的关系。
相信边际的力量。
《Evolving China： Speed to Quality/ 转型中国：从速度到质量》
吴金铎著 全英文版由中国人民银行所属出版社《中国金融出版社》出版（2020年7月）
自改革开放以来，中国经历了四十多年经济的持续高速增长期。中国凭借人口红利带来的低成本劳动力充分供给优势、高资本积累率和高投资率、跻身全球产业链并共享全球化红利等，形成了一套有中国特色的发展模式。然而随着世界经济进入新常态，这种发展模式受到越来越严重的冲击和挑战，中国过去的发展模式赖以生存的外在环境和内在条件，宏观环境和微观基础都发生了翻天覆地的变化。中国原有经济发展模式受到的冲击与其说是国际市场外需收缩带来的后果不如说是原有发展模式内部累积矛盾不断加剧的结果。现阶段中国面临的问题表面上是转型难题，实际上是已有的经济发展方式累积问题和矛盾的集中爆发，原有的增长机制和发展方式既无法有效应对危机带来的系统性风险和阻止新的外在冲击，也无法自发解决自身结构内在的矛盾。在这样的时代背景下，经济发展方式转变刻不容缓。经济高速发展到高质量发展是经济发展方式转变的应有之义。“十九大”报告指出：中国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，目前“正处在转变发展方式、优化经济结构、转换增长动力的攻关期”。产业结构调整和升级是经济发展方式转变的重要内容，产业更替代表了产业结构调整和升级的方向，可以作为全面带动经济发展方式转变，实现高质量发展。
本书试图构造一个经济发展方式的产出模型，把需求结构、要素投入以及产业结构纳入统一的分析框架，通过对中国42个行业经济发展方式投入产出模型各种投入要素的产出系数进行计量估算，对各行业的内需诱发作用、进出口诱发作用、投资乘数、劳动力就业带动作用、能源消耗系数、环境排放系数以及技术溢出效应进行了考察，以行业为切入点来探索中国经济发展方式转变和高质量发展的路径。本书综合经济发展方式转变的目标及平衡各种发展要素的重要程度，使用推广的随机前沿生产函数模型进行实证分析，得出了一个有利于经济发展方式转变的产业选择的一致意见。
英文版由中国人民银行所属出版社《中国金融出版社》出版（2020年）
Evolving China：Speed to Quality
Chapter 1 Transformation Dilemma..................... 1
1.1 Internal Contradictions and External Shocks.............................................. 1
1.1.1 Past rapid growth and high quality outlook..................................... 1
1.1.2 The central committee’s important exposition on the economic development mode since reform and opening-up..................................................................................... 5
1.1.3 Difficulties in changing China’s traditional economic development mode 10
1.1.4 Industrial permutations & combinations and economic development mode transformation........................................................................................................................ 19
1.2 Intension and Extension of Economic Development Mode............................. 24
1.2.1 Literature reviews of economic growth mode and economic development mode 24
1.2.2 Types of economic development modes................................................ 29
1.2.3 The argument about the way to realize the transformation of economic development mode........................................................................................................................ 34
1.3 Industrial Priority and Industrial Combination........................................ 40
1.3.1 Criteria for industry priority......................................................... 40
1.3.2 Relations between leading industries and corresponding industries 45
1.3.3 Industrial priority and benchmark of industrial arrangement and combination 55
1.3.4 Summary of selection methods of leading industries...................... 60
1.4 Research Route, Methods and Innovations................................................... 66
1.4.1 Research guidelines and framework.................................................... 66
1.4.3 Innovations and possible shortcomings of this book...................... 68
Chapter 2 Theoretical Origins of Leading Industries and Development Modes............................................... 69
2.1 The Origin of Industrial Policy in Western Classical Economics............ 70
2.1.1 Adams’s view of economic development and industrial priorities 70
2.1.2 David Ricardo’s economic development theory and industrial priority 72
2.2 Relevant Theory of Leading Industry and Economic Development............... 74
2.2.1 The development for law of Petty industry...................................... 74
2.2.2 The evolution of industrial structure............................................. 76
2.2.3 Hoffman and Yuke Iwatani’s industrialization theory................... 77
2.2.4 Chenery’s evolution theory of leading industries........................ 80
2.2.5 Rostow’s theory on leading industry............................................... 83
2.2.6 Helchman’s “Unbalanced Growth Theory”........................................ 87
2.3 Summary of This Chapter................................................................................ 90
Chapter 3 Economic Development Model and Empirical Study—Based on Input-output Framework.................................. 92
3.1 Basic Ideas of Input-output Model Design for Economic Development Mode 92
3.1.1 Equilibrium of input-output table of economic development mode in industrial level 92
3.1.2 Data sources and industrial classification.................................... 97
3.2 Correlation Coefficient of Input-output Model of Economic Development Mode 99
3.2.1 Induced coefficient of domestic demand........................................... 99
3.2.2 Import and export inducement........................................................... 104
3.2.3 Investment multiplier....................................................................... 107
3.2.4 Employment coefficient...................................................................... 110
3.2.6 Environmental emission coefficients............................................... 117
3.2.7 Technology spillovers........................................................................ 119
3.3 Empirical Analysis of Input-output Efficiency of Economic Development 122
3.3.1 Stochastic frontier production function setting.......................... 122
3.3.2 Data and variable selection and model estimation........................ 124
3.4 Summary.......................................................................................................... 128
Chapter 4 Evolution of China’s Leading Industries and Economic Development Modes.......................................... 131
4.1 Investigations of the Current Stage of Economic Development in China 131
4.2 Replacement of China’s Leading Industry,Evolution of Industrial Structure and Transformation of Economic Development Mode............................................................................ 134
4.3 Comparison and Review of Existing Leading Industry Selection Schemes 138
4.3.1 Program of chinese academy of social sciences............................. 138
4.3.2 Former national planning commission program................................ 144
4.3.3 Development research center program of the State Council......... 147
4.4 Selection of Leading Industries and Review of Industrial Policies..... 150
4.4.1 Relevant policies to support key industries during the Ninth Five-year plan 150
4.4.2 The focus industries and related policies during the tenth five-year plan 153
4.4.3 Key industries during the “eleventh five-year” plan............... 155
4.4.4 Changes in industrial policies from the ninth five-year plan to the eleventh five-year plan............................................................................................................... 158
4.5 Expirences on Leading Industries and Economic Development Mode......... 160
4.5.1 Cases from the USA............................................................................ 161
4.5.2 Cases of Japan................................................................................... 166
4.5.3 Cases from German.............................................................................. 170
4.5.4 Cases of South Korea........................................................................ 174
4.6 Summary.......................................................................................................... 177
Chapter 5 Current Situation and Future Prospects of China’s Economic Development Mode................................. 180
5.1 Analysis of the Contents of China’s Economic Development Mode.......... 180
5.1.1 Elements and structures of China’s economic development.......... 180
5.1.2 Analysis of the industrial structure of China’s economic development 181
5.1.3 Analysis of Demand structure of China’s economic development. 183
5.2 An Analysis of China’s Leading Industries – Based on China’Real Estate Industry 185
5.2.1 The background of the prosperity of China’s real estate industry 185
5.2.2 The current status of China’s real estate market...................... 186
5.2.3 Causes for the prosperity of China’s real estate industry as a pillar industry 190
5.3 Prospect of China’s Real Estate Market and Outlook of Future Leading Industries 191
5.3.1 The measurement of the bubble in China’s real estate market... 191
5.3.2 The prospect of China’s real estate industry and the Outlook of the leading industry in the future.................................................................................................... 200
Chapter 6 Policy Suggestions on the Development of Leading Industries and the Change of Economic Development Mode in China...... 203
6.1 Principles for Developing Leading Industries and Changing the Mode of Economic Development............................................................................................................................. 203
6.1.1 Grasp the opportunities for leading industries replacement....... 203
6.1.2 Coordinating leading industries and supporting industries........ 204
6.1.3 Strengthen government guidance on the basis of market regulation 205
6.2 Suggestions on Transforming the Mode of Economic Development.............. 206
6.2.1 Electronic information industry...................................................... 206
6.2.2 Strategic emerging industries......................................................... 208
6.2.3 Promoting the integration of services and other industries....... 209
Conclusions..................................... 212
References...................................... 215
谨以此书敬献先考吴公讳忠良先生。
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